Statistical Significance: The Complete Guide for Researchers
Have you ever wondered if your research findings show accurate data, or if they’re just the result of random chance? That’s where statistical significance comes in: it’s the standard researchers use when deciding if results are truly meaningful.
This guide will break down the basics of statistical significance – how to determine statistical significance in your own work and avoid common pitfalls like false positives, and how statistical significance calculators and proper research design can lead to more reliable results.
What is statistical significance?
Think of statistical significance (sometimes shortened to "stat sig") as a test to see whether a result is due to something genuine or just random chance. When we say something is "statistically significant", we mean there's a low probability that the observed value or observed effect is just a coincidence, given your original hypothesis.
The concept hinges on measures like p-values. During significance testing, the p-value tells you how likely it is to see your observed difference (or something more extreme) if the null hypothesis – usually the inverse statement that there’s no effect – is true.
What is the typical threshold for statistical significance?
Typically, research uses a significance threshold (predetermined alpha or significance level) of 0.05, meaning a 5% risk of calling something significant when it actually turns out to be random chance.
Some areas of research where accuracy is paramount, such as medical research and clinical trials, use a stricter significance threshold of 0.01.
It’s common to confuse statistical significance with clinical significance or practical significance, but they’re not the same. A statistically significant result doesn’t guarantee practical importance. For example, a new drug might show a statistically significant improvement over a placebo in clinical trials (small p-value), but the effect size may be too small to matter in real life.
Here are examples of how you can use statistical significance to gain confidence in different forms of data analysis:
- A survey: If you poll 1,000 people and discover that 60% who answered your questionnaire prefer Product A over Product B, statistical significance helps you decide whether this observed difference represents a real-world impact or if it’s just a quirk of your sample.
- An experiment: A statistically significant result for a new drug suggests it outperforms the existing option, not just by random chance. Still, you want to weigh the clinical significance or practical importance to see if the actual effect makes a difference in patients’ lives.
- A marketing campaign: If two versions of an ad generate different click-through rates, say 5% vs. 4.5%, statistical significance testing helps you determine whether that gap reflects a true performance difference or a random variation in audience behavior, guiding which creative to use going forward.
Why statistical significance matters in research
No matter the field, statistical significance can be crucial.
- Market researchers rely on statistical significance tests when analyzing consumer data
- Scientists use statistical analysis to give weight to their research findings
- Healthcare professionals depend on statistically significant results to show that new treatments have an actual effect.
Misinterpreting what statistical significance and statistically significant results really mean can lead to a ripple effect, influencing everything from the approval of new drug treatments in clinical trials to decisions made in large-scale social research.
But understanding what a small p-value means, and carrying out correct statistical hypothesis testing to understand the real effects of a survey or experiment (i.e., collecting sample data to determine if there’s enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis and lean toward the alternative hypothesis), can be challenging.
In scientific research and the science industry, confident conclusions are built on statistical analysis, not guesswork. Statistical significance provides the confidence that a research hypothesis is supported by evidence, guiding policies, investment, and new directions.
False positives, meanwhile, happen when researchers use inappropriate statistical tests or test after seeing the data – a problem known as p-hacking.
This has a significant real-world impact. Rolling out a new product based on findings that are statistically significant, but drawn from a tiny sample size or without consideration of practical significance or meta-analysis, can be expensive and misleading. Reliable results matter, not just for the scientific community but everywhere.
By showing that results are statistically significant, you signal that statistical hypothesis testing was used, making it more likely that those results are meaningful and not due to just random chance.
How to calculate statistical significance
Your approach will vary depending on your research design and data, but here are the typical steps researchers follow to determine statistical significance:
- State your hypotheses
Identify your null hypothesis (often the inverse statement – that there’s no difference in data sets) and your alternative hypothesis (that a real difference or effect exists).
- Set the significance level
Choose a predetermined alpha (commonly 0.05) as your cut-off for what’s considered statistically significant. In some disciplines, a stricter significance level is the norm.
- Select the right statistical test
Statistical hypothesis testing uses different types of statistical tests, such as:
- One-tailed tests or two-tailed tests depend on your specific hypothesis
- One-sample t-tests compare a sample mean to a given value
- Two-sample t-tests compare two sample means
- Paired t-tests are for before-after or matched data
- Chi-square tests are for categorical data
- ANOVA tests compare more than two groups
- Collect and analyze your data
Gather your data and calculate the relevant test statistic, analyzing the data accurately so you get reliable results.
- Calculate the p-value
The p-value tells you how likely your observed effect is if the null hypothesis is true. Statistical significance testing is mostly about comparing the p-value to your significance threshold.
- Compare p-value to significance level
If your probability value is at or below the significance threshold, you reject the null hypothesis and consider your results statistically significant.
- Look at the effect size and confidence interval
Even with statistical significance, consider the effect size (practical importance) and the confidence interval (for more precise estimates and context around your observed effect).
An example calculation: Suppose you’re testing a new drug against an old one using a two-sample t-test. If you find a statistically significant difference in recovery rates between the two, you’d still want to check the confidence interval and effect size to judge the clinical significance for a real-world impact.
Statistical significance calculators
Statistical significance calculators can help you run data through formulae quickly, especially for multiple studies or when you need quick computation. They’re useful when collecting data, checking if you’ve reached statistical significance, or if you want to double-check your significance testing.
Here are three online stat sig calculators you can use to work out statistical significance:
- GraphPad QuickCalcs – A useful set of p-value calculators for some common statistical significance tests
- Social Science Statistics – Provides a number of p-value calculators to work out stat sig from various statistical test scores, making it useful for different research designs and larger samples.
- Neil Patel – A calculator specifically designed to help you find statistical significance in A/B testing
Just be mindful of the tools’ limitations. Many assume data are normally distributed, independent, and that you’ve used the right sample size.
When conducting scientific research, especially for publishing, always check these assumptions before using an online tool.
How to determine statistical significance in research
Follow these guidelines to determine statistical significance.
- Decide on your sample size
Figure out what your sample size should be before you start collecting data. Your research design and planned hypothesis testing should help you estimate what’s needed to reach a confidence level and significance level that means you can rely on your results.
- Establish your confidence interval
A narrow confidence interval around your estimate means more precise estimates and typically more reliable results.
- Check results against your significance threshold
Your results can be considered statistically significant if the p-value is less than your predetermined alpha.
- Consider the effect size
Make sure your conscious of the effect size in relation to the amount of data, as a small effect can still be statistically significant with large enough samples.
- Perform multiple comparisons
Watch out for false positives if you’re performing a larger number of significance tests, and then make the appropriate corrections to keep your conclusions valid and accurate.
- Factor in the sample size and statistical power
Your sample size can affect your ability to detect a statistically significant difference. Larger samples mean greater statistical power, helping you find real observed differences, rather than just random noise. However, if you have too much, even small observations could seem statistically significant.
On the other hand, if you have too little data, you might miss a significant result.
- Interpret your results
Not every statistically significant result carries practical significance – especially if you’re aiming for clinical significance. Check its impact in the real world, not just on paper, to establish the practical importance of your data.
Clinical significance refers to results where you can establish whether a medical treatment or intervention will have a meaningful impact on a patient’s health and life.
Here are the key differences between statistical significance and clinical significance:
Results can be statistically significant without being clinically significant, and vice versa.
Examples of different statistical significance use cases
Statistical significance has a number of common use cases for researchers in both the scientific and business worlds.
As mentioned above, there’s statistical significance in …
- Clinical trials to help medical researchers establish whether their results are accurate and reliable, and can be used to prove that drugs and treatments are effective
- A/B testing to enable marketers to understand which campaign, landing page or paid ad is most effective
- Market research to identify whether trends and market research survey results are accurate and reliable, so researchers can advise their businesses
- Quality control so manufacturers can keep their output within acceptable limits of what’s expected
- User behaviour analysis to understand how customers and visitors interact with websites and apps
It’s a vital tool for all researchers and can be the difference between effective and ineffective data gathering.
Common mistakes in statistical significance
Here are some of the most common mistakes people make when trying to establish statistical significance:
- Assuming that a statistically significant result is also clinically significant
- P-hacking or running multiple statistical tests until you "find" significance
- Overlooking required assumptions for your statistical tests
- Ignoring corrections for the number of tests performed
- Reporting only p-values without confidence intervals or effect sizes
Clients, publishers, and reviewers expect you to provide your probability value, confidence interval, and effect size for all main findings.
Expert tip: Pooling data through meta-analysis, where findings from multiple studies are combined, can provide you with a clear sense of both statistical significance and practical significance.
When not to rely on statistical significance
In clinical trials, social research, or meta-analysis, it’s best to go beyond just statistical significance.
Pay attention to research design, hypothesis testing, significance threshold selection, and the difference between statistical and clinical significance.
Remember, statistical significance is a tool to support conclusions drawn from your research, not the conclusion itself.
Most researchers will be aware that “prioritizing research quantity over quality and emphasizing statistically significant results” has been a key factor during the replication crisis. If you want accurate results, you need to take your analysis beyond just statistical significance.
Practical researcher’s checklist
Use the checklist below to make sure you achieve statistical significance with your next study or survey.
- Write both your main and null hypotheses
- Calculate your needed sample size for statistical power
- Collect and analyze data using suitable statistical tests
- Verify all assumptions for validity
- Adjust for multiple significance tests, if needed
- Always report both the statistical significance and practical importance
- Include effect size, p-value, and confidence interval in your findings
Stay current with new methods in statistical significance and statistical analysis. Well-designed research, reliable significance testing, and informed data collection will ensure your work has a real-world impact.
Final thoughts
Understanding statistical significance is more than just checking if your research passes a certain threshold – it's about drawing reliable conclusions that matter in the real world.
Remember, true insight comes from looking beyond the p-value to consider effect size, confidence intervals, and the actual impact of your findings. Whether you’re conducting clinical trials, social research, A/B testing, or business analytics, grounding your analysis in sound principles is key to producing meaningful, trustworthy results.
We've explored the essentials of hypothesis testing, the importance of research design, and the value of combining statistical significance with practical significance. As you continue your journey in scientific research, keep refining your analytical approach and stay curious about new developments.
Ready to elevate your research workflow? Try Checkbox today to design, collect, and analyze data with confidence – and take your research to the next level.
Statistical significance FAQs
Statistical significance indicates that the results of a study or experiment are unlikely to have occurred by chance, suggesting a meaningful relationship or effect in the data.
You can determine statistical significance by calculating a p-value through hypothesis testing – if the p-value is below a predetermined threshold (commonly 0.05), the results are considered statistically significant.
The number of survey responses you need for statistical significance will depend on factors like your desired confidence level, margin of error, population size, and the expected variability in your responses.
